SEDA methods: Addressing the challenges

While these challenges are substantial, they are not insurmountable. The EOP team has developed methods to address these challenges in order to produce estimates of students’ average test scores, average learning rates across grades, and trends over time in each unit (e.g., school, geographic district, etc.). All estimates are comparable across states, grades, and years.

Below we describe the raw data used to create SEDA and how we:

1. Estimate the location of each state’s proficiency thresholds
2. Place states’ proficiency thresholds on the same scale
3. Estimate mean test scores from the raw data and the threshold estimates
4. Scale the estimates so they are measured in terms of grade levels
5. Scale the estimates to grade equivalents
6. Estimate average scores, learning rates, and trends in average scores

Estimating the location of each state’s proficiency thresholds

We use a statistical technique called heteroskedastic ordered probit (HETOP) modeling to estimate the location of the thresholds that define the proficiency categories within each state, subject, grade, and year. We estimate the model using all the counts of students in each geographic school district within a state-subject-grade-year.

A simplified description of this method follows. We assume the distribution of test scores in each school district is bell-shaped. For each state, grade, year, and subject, we then find the set of test-score thresholds that meet two conditions: 1) they would most closely produce the reported proportions of students in each proficiency category; and 2) they represent a test-score scale in which the average student in the state-grade-year-subject has a score of 0 and the standard deviation of scores is 1.

Example: State A, Grade 4 reading in 2014–15

In the example below, there are three districts in State A. The table shows the number and proportion of scores in each of the state’s four proficiency categories. District 1 has more lower-scoring students than the others; District 3 has more higher-scoring students. Assuming each district’s test-score distribution is bell-shaped, we determine where the three thresholds would be located that would yield the proportions of students in each district shown in the table. In this example, the top threshold is one standard deviation above the statewide average score. At this value, we would expect 0% of students from District 1, 16% of students from District 2, 20% of students from District 3 to score in the top proficiency category.

Estimating the mean from proficiency count data

The next step of our process is to estimate the mean test score in each unit for all students and by student subgroups (gender, race/ethnicity, and economic disadvantage). To do this, we estimate heteroskedastic ordered probit models using both the raw proficiency count data (shown above) and the linked thresholds from the prior step. This method allows us to estimate the mean standardized test score in each unit for every subgroup, subject, grade, and year on the same scale.

For more information, see Steps 5 and 6 in the technical documentation; Reardon, Shear, et al. (2017); and Shear and Reardon (2020).

For more information, see Reardon, Shear, et al. (2017); and Shear and Reardon (2020).

The three parameters: Average test scores, learning rates, and trends in test scores

We use hierarchical linear models to produce estimates of average test scores, learning rates, and trends in average test scores. The intuition behind these models is described in this section.

We have measures of the average test scores in up to 66 grade-year cells in each tested subject for each unit. The scores are adjusted so that a value of 3 corresponds to the average achievement of 3rd graders nationally, a value of 4 corresponds to the average achievement of 4th graders nationally, and so on. For each subject, these can be represented in a table like this:

Hypothetical Average Test Scores (Grade-level Equivalents), By Grade and Year

In this hypothetical school district, students in 3rd grade in 2009 earned an average score of 3 in this subject, indicating that students scored at a 3rd-grade level, on average (equal to the national average for 3rd graders). Students in 8th grade in 2019 scored at a Grade 9.5 level, on average (1.5 grade levels above the national average for 8th graders).

From this table, we can compute the average test score, the average learning rate, and the average test score trend for the district.

Computing the average test score

To compute the average test score across grades and years, we first use the information in the table to calculate how far above or below the national average students are in each grade and year. This entails subtracting the national grade-level average—e.g., 8 in 8th grade—from the grade-year-specific score.

Hypothetical Average Test Scores (Grade-level Equivalents Relative to National Average), By Grade and Year

In this representation, students in Grade 3 in 2009 have a score of 0, meaning their test scores are equal to the national average for 3rd graders. Students in Grade 8 in 2019 have a score of 1.5, meaning their scores are 1.5 grade levels above the national average for 8th graders.

We then compute the average of these values. In this example, the average difference (the average of the values in the table) is 0.75, meaning that the average grade 3–8 student in the district scores 0.75 grade levels above the national average.

Computing the average learning rate

To compute the average learning rate, we compare students’ average scores in one grade and year to those in the next grade and year (see below). In other words, we look at grade-to-grade improvements in performance within each cohort.

Hypothetical Average Test Scores (Grade-level Equivalents), By Grade and Year

For example, we compare the average score in Grade 3 in 2009 (3.0) to the average score in Grade 4 in 2010 (4.2). The difference of 1.2 indicates that students’ test scores are 1.2 grade levels higher in 4th grade than they were in 3rd grade, or that students’ learning rate in that year and grade was 1.2. We compute this difference for each diagonal pair of cells in the table, and then take their average. In this table, the average learning rate is also 1.2. If average test scores were at the national average in each grade and year, the average learning rate would be 1.0 (indicating that the average student’s scores improved by one grade level each grade). So, a value of 1.2 indicates that learning rates in this district are 20% faster than the national average.

Computing the trend in average test scores

To compute the average test score trend, we compare students’ average scores in one grade and year to those in the same grade in the next year (see below). In other words, we look at year-to-year improvements in performance within each grade.

For example, we compare the average score in Grade 3 in 2009 (3.0) to the average score in Grade 3 in 2010 (3.1). The difference of 0.1 indicates that students’ test scores are 0.1 grade levels higher in 3rd grade in 2010 than they were in 3rd grade in 2009. We compute this difference for each horizontal pair of cells in the table, and then take their average. In this example, the average test score trend is 0.1 grade levels per year.

For technical details, see Step 9 of the technical documentation.

Data accuracy

We have taken several steps to ensure the accuracy of the data reported here. The statistical and psychometric methods underlying the data we report are summarized here and published in peer-reviewed journals. First, we conduct statistical analyses to ensure that our methods of converting the raw data into measures of average test scores are accurate. For example, in a small subset of school districts, students take the NAEP test in addition to their state-specific tests. Since the NAEP test is the same across districts, we can use these districts’ NAEP scores to determine the accuracy of our method of converting the state test scores to a common scale. When we do this, we find that our measures are accurate, and generally yield the same conclusions about relative average test scores as we would get if all students took the NAEP test. For more information on these analyses, see Reardon, Kalogrides & Ho (2019).

Second, one might be concerned that our learning-rate estimates do not account for students moving in and out of schools and districts. For example, if many high-achieving students move out of a school or district in the later grades and/or many low-achieving students move in, the average test scores will appear to grow less from 3rd to 8th grade than they should. This would cause us to underestimate the learning rate in a school or district.

To determine the accuracy of our learning-rate estimates, we compared them to the estimated learning rate we would get if we could track individual students’ learning rates over time. Working with research partners who had access to student-level data in three states, we determined that our learning-rate estimates are generally sufficiently accurate to allow comparisons among districts and schools. We did find that our learning-rate estimates tend to be slightly less accurate for charter schools. On average, our estimated learning rates for charter schools tend to overstate the true learning rates in charter schools in these three states by roughly 5%. This is likely because charter schools have more student in- and out-mobility than traditional public schools. It suggests that learning-rate comparisons between charter and traditional public schools should be interpreted with some caution. For more information on these analyses, see Reardon et al. (2019).

Third, we have constructed margins of error for each of the measures of average test scores, learning rates, and trends in average scores. On the explorer, we show 95% confidence intervals. In the downloadable data, we provide standard errors, which can be used in statistical analyses and comparisons. Interested users can download data files that include these standard errors from our Get the Data page.

Fourth, we do not release any estimates on the website or in the downloadable data files where the margin of error is large. In places where there are a small number of students (or a small number of students of a given subgroup), the margin of error is sometimes large; we do not report data in such cases. Margins of error of school learning rates are also large when there are only two or three grade levels in a school; as a result, roughly one-third of schools are missing learning rates on the website.